And I'm still very confident that stock performance from current prices will be lousy over the next years. I think we'll see average returns of about 2. As I've explained, for many reasons, I'm not selling my stocks as a result of this poor outlook. Although if the market goes much higher, I may rethink that. I'm just not expecting to get a good long-term return from this level.

And I'm keeping some powder dry, in the form of cash and bonds, which I will move into stocks if we do see a crash like the one I described above. Stock market opinions follow the market, not vice versa.

So, a month ago, when the market experienced its first meaningful decline in more than a year, the overall consensus started to become more bearish. Similarly, now that stocks have recovered, everyone's wildly bullish again. As Warren Buffett has observed, one of the keys to not destroying yourself in the market is to "be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.

At the same time, don't be so afraid of the market that you avoid stocks altogether. If you have a long-term investment horizon — longer than years — a significant percentage of your portfolio should almost always be invested in stocks.

The risk of getting demolished by inflation over such periods is too high to try to always try to hide in bonds or cash. The market will never seem "safe. And it will seem the least safe when it is actually the most safe — after a brutal bear market like the one we had in So don't try to time anything based on how "safe" the market seems and how "comfortable" you feel.

In the past, when stocks have reached these levels on these measures, they have produced lousy long-term returns. And I think the same thing will happen this time. I've walked through these valuation measures in detail here. Today, I'll just share one chart that includes them all.

John Hussman of the Hussman Funds is one of the most disciplined and fact-based investment managers of all those who regularly share their logic publicly.

John Hussman also made a cautious prudent decision during the financial crisis that has hurt his investment returns ever since. As a result, most people who used to listen to John Hussman have decided that he's an idiot and that everything he says should be ignored. John Hussman is not an idiot.

Because a few years of performance doesn't tell you much about whether an investor is good or just lucky. Everyone can put together a few good years. But investment returns tend to regress to means over time. And luck always runs out.

The Stock Market Crash

I, personally, don't pay much attention to John Hussman's recent investment performance. What I do pay attention to is John Hussman's logic and facts. And I find his logic and facts far more persuasive than the logic and facts of most of the whooping and effusing market bulls I see every day on TV.

So if you think I should disregard the message in the chart below, please do not tell me that John Hussman's recent returns have been crappy. Please tell me why I should ignore the logic and facts in the chart.

Wikiquote:Transwiki/American History quotes Stock Market Crash - Wikiquote

And while you're telling me that, please bear in mind that the phrase, "it's different this time," is described, with reason, as "the four most expensive words in the English language. John Hussman, Hussman Funds. This chart compares the historical performance of seven 7 valuation measures against the actual performance of the market. But please note that the CAPE is only one of these measures. There are 6 other ones in this chart.

And they all show the same thing. We don't yet know the future year performance of the market for the more recent time periods, which is why the line stops. It is saying that these 7 valuation measures, all of which have shown to have been highly predictive in the past, are suggesting that future stock returns from this level will be crappy.

Yes, they could all be wrong. It could, in fact, be "different this time. But unlike some of the more bullish measures that today's bulls sometimes throw around — such as "the Fed Model" or "price-to-adjusted-predicted-operating-earnings" — these measures have been predictive for many decades. So if the signal these measures are sending is wrong, it will have to be because "it's different this time. Because, although stocks could deliver lousy performance for the next years by just parking at this level and calmly moving sideways, that's generally not the way stocks behave.

Generally, stocks deliver average performance by booming and busting. And, right now, you may be unnerved to learn, stocks are more expensive than they have been at any time in the past century, with the exception of a few months in and a few years around the massive bull-market peak in and And, by the way, please don't take comfort from the recent recovery from the dip of the past two months.

This behavior is entirely consistent with the behavior of stocks just before some major crashes. Let's look at some more charts. Yes, they're from John Hussman.

Quotes Following the Stock Market Crash

Yes, I know, John Hussman's recent returns have been crappy. Focus on the charts, please, not John Hussman or John Hussman's recent returns. Note the major recovery to close to the old highs just before the real crash:. Same recovery just before the real crash:. I remember that one, by the way. I was right in the middle of it. And I remember feeling relieved when the market recovered almost to its old highs. Yes, the market behavior before other crashes has been modestly different.

Sometimes the market sets a new high before it crashes. And, sometimes, it doesn't crash — sometimes it just moves sideways for a long time or charges even higher. Just please don't delude yourself into thinking that, because the market just recovered from a "dip" or because cautious investors like John Hussman have been "wrong for years," we're now safe and can go hog wild. And also don't delude yourself into thinking that we need a "catalyst" for a crash.

I'm Going To Make A Confession: I Don't Know What The Market Is Going To Do. Tech market is nowhere near the dotcom days. How augmented reality is changing the way we work. You are using an outdated version of Internet Explorer. For security reasons you should upgrade your browser. Please go to Windows Updates and install the latest version. Trending Tech Insider Finance Politics Strategy Life Sports Video All.

You have successfully emailed the post. Yes, I Still Think There's A Decent Chance Of A Stock Market Crash — And, No, The Recent Recovery Doesn't Reduce My Concern. I own stocks, so that's good news for me.

Be wary of that! Anyway, why am I so bearish about long-term returns? This chart was produced by a fund manager named John Hussman, of the Hussman Funds. In short, please tell me why "it's different this time. John Hussman, Hussman Funds This chart compares the historical performance of seven 7 valuation measures against the actual performance of the market.

The orange line in the chart is the average of these 7 valuation measures. So, again, what is this chart saying? Could all of these valuation measures be wrong? Why do I think there's a decent chance of a crash? Is it possible that stocks will just keep charging higher from here, possibly for years? Yes, again, it is possible. But it doesn't seem likely.

Note the major recovery to close to the old highs just before the real crash: Same recovery just before the real crash: John Hussman Yes, the market behavior before other crashes has been modestly different.

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